Speculative Apocalypses

Dark times, indeed. But what really threatens our existence concretely?

• atomic war: the probability is discussed daily. But the thresholds are presumably higher than our fear might tell us. Probability: 20%. Threatened: 300 Million
• pandemic: Yes, it still exists. A more devastating corona variant or even a more dangerous new virus may come up. Probability: 30%. Threatened: 1 Billion
• climate crisis: abstract, far away in the future and unnoticeably creeping into our world. Possible outcomes: 1. we are getting a grip on our consumption and becoming sustainable. 2. Somebody invents a CO2-eating bacteria that poop sugar. 3. we don't make it. Likelihood for 1: 20%, for 2: 50%. Remaining: 30%, Threatened: 4 Billion
• AI: The technical progress is immense. Some day in the near future, there will be a computer that is simply superior. And then we can only hope that this machine shows mercy. Probability: 10%. Threatened: Everyone.